If Chelsea emerge victorious from their match against Stoke City on New Year's Eve, they will have extended their winning run to a remarkable 13 Premier League matches. Victory would also mean that they would enter 2017 with at least a six-point lead at the top of the table with exactly half the season remaining.
It would place Chelsea in a highly enviable position, especially with no European football to drain their resources, and their title claims would be the strongest of all the challengers. But it would be a mistake for anyone to believe that the job was even partially done as such a lead at such a time can be deceptive. A six-point gap is all very well but with 57 still to play for, there would be plenty of time for the other clubs to wipe out that deficit.
In fact, the next six weeks are likely to ultimately define Chelsea's ambitions, not least due to the opening of the winter transfer window. On the face of it, the Blues have probably already executed the most spectacular piece of business with the £60 million sale of Oscar to Shanghai SIPG[1] of the Chinese Super League. The transfer of a squad player, albeit a supremely talented one, for an astronomical sum would be welcomed by any team in the league, though it does pose a potential problem for Antonio Conte.
The club hierarchy have indicated that they are ready to reinvest the funds generated from the sale back into the playing squad, which effectively means that the manager has £60m burning a hole in his pocket. While that is very welcome, it is essential that any purchases are made with due calculation and not just for the sake of spending the money.
After receiving a fortune in the sale of Oscar, Chelsea must be wise with their newfound cash in January. Conte's masterstroke this season has been creating a team with perfect balance out of the chaos and confusion that preceded it. Splashing out on a shiny new player can upset the equilibrium if the player does not have the appropriate attitude or is not able to enhance the team with his attributes. The team has picked itself on merit for the past three months and has therefore remained largely unchanged from week to week. Acquiring a player that would not abide sitting on the bench while his teammates are winning matches can cause problems in the dressing room, an area at Stamford Bridge that seems to be thriving at present in sharp contrast to last season.
Buying a player for big money can also create its own problems even if the player himself has an excellent attitude. It places pressure on the manager to field the new purchase and potentially alter the fortunes of the team in a negative manner. Chelsea have extensive history in this department, notably the vanity purchase of Andriy Shevchenko for £30m in summer 2006 and the £50m lavished on Fernando Torres in January 2011. Both players were past their peak when they came to London yet both needed to be shoehorned into the side to the detriment of results. Lessons appear to have been learned if reports are to be believed that Roman Abramovich now steers clear of player recruitment, but it remains a wise note of caution.
There is also the infamous case of Faustino Asprilla's transfer to Newcastle from Parma in February 1996, something that has often been blamed for Kevin Keegan's side throwing away a nine-point lead and allowing Manchester United to be crowned champions. While the blame thrown at the Colombian was extremely harsh given the abject nature of Newcastle's defending in the closing weeks of that season, the presence of a flamboyant superstar and all the unnecessary attention it trained on a team that was trying to win a rare league title certainly didn't help.
Conte will be keen to avoid any similar distractions, though a look at his summer transfer activity assuages any concerns and speaks volumes about his preferred type of player. N'Golo Kante and Michy Batshuayi were the two expensive acquisitions and each have been singled out for praise by the manager for their exceptional attitude. Batshuayi, in particular, has impressed his boss with his unwavering commitment in training despite his lack of opportunities on match days that even saw him left out of the 3-0 Boxing Day win against Bournemouth despite Diego Costa being suspended.
As well as carefully negotiating the transfer window, the Blues will have to navigate through a testing run of fixtures at the start of the year. In their first five league matches of 2017, Chelsea travel to Tottenham, Liverpool and champions Leicester City while playing host to Arsenal. A collective loss of form could easily see fortunes reversed and Chelsea's advantage at the top of the table negated. But get through that period still flying high and with a settled squad and maybe, just maybe, Chelsea supporters can start to dream.
Phil is one of ESPN's Chelsea bloggers. You can follow him on Twitter @PhilLythell.
References
- ^ the £60 million sale of Oscar to Shanghai SIPG (www.espnfc.com)
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